Probability Considerations

In this lesson, we introduce some useful concepts of probability calculations – Bayesian statistics and the Brier score. They can be helpful to estimate the probability of occurrence of some events (e. g. in decision theory) or to assess the quality of a prediction (e. g. of a blockchain-based prediction market).

In game theory and also in many blockchain-related topics, we cannot tell for sure if an event will occur or how a certain person will decide. In these cases, we need predictions that give us a certain probability of occurrence.